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China’s multiple transgressions and mobilisation of troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) started in the Ladakh region in April 2020, when Covid was spreading to pandemic proportions. Relations between the two countries have been in a state of freeze since then. Subsequently China upped the ante along Sikkim-Arunachal Pradesh border resulting in the clash between the rival troops at Yangtse in the crucial Tawang sector on December 9, 2022. As recently as last month China also ‘standardised’ the names of 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh though India summarily rejected the same.
The troop confrontation with China in eastern Ladakh is now three year long. There was no breakthrough yet again in defusing the situation despite the top level military talks in the 18th round of talks between senior military commanders held on April 23, 2023 on the Chinese side of the Chushul-Moldo bordermeeting point.
Thediscussions essentially centered on the two remaining friction areas on the LAC in Demchok and Depsang, both sides having disengaged in four other areas along the LAC, setting up buffer zones in some of them. The 18th round of discussions followed the first in-person meeting since July 2019 of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) held in Beijing in February this year, at which “the situation along LAC was reviewed and proposals for disengagement in the remaining friction areas was discussed which would help in restoration of peace and tranquility in western sector and create conditions for restoration of normalcy in bilateral relations”. However, the stalemate in the talks persisted even after marathon discussions from around 0930 am ending late in the night, evidenced by the fact that no joint statement was issued.
Conflicting signals : The Communist Partyof China run Global Times has repeatedly been claiming of late that “the border issue is shifting from a stand-off to normalised management”. There has however been no offer of explanation from Chinese experts of
why the PLA mobilized in unprecedented numbers in April 2020contravening past agreements (first agreement on peace and tranquility was signed in 1993 and several understandings were reached later to help maintain peace) andpushed up troops towards China’s claim lines in several areas along the LAC.Notwithstanding the continued stand-off along the LAC, the bilateral trade between the two countries reported higher figures in 2021 and 2022 with India’s imports of Chinese goods reaching record highs, besides the resumption of high level visits from China with India hosting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and G-20 summits this year. At the same time, India has curtailed the inflow of Chinese investments. India has also not given go-ahead to resume direct flights between the two counties now nearly three years, first suspended because of the Covid situation.
India’s stand Vs Chinese response : India is pushing consistently and repeatedly for troop disengagement at the strategically
located Depsang Bulge area and the junction at Demchok as the immediate step towards de-escalation and de-induction of the over 50,000 troops each deployed with heavy weapon systems like tanks, artillery and rocket systems in eastern Ladakh region. China has so far shown no intent to withdraw its troops and stop blocking Indian patrols from accessing their traditional patrolling posts (PPs) which fall well inside of India’s perception of LAC, for instance PPs 10,11,12, 12A and 13 in
Depsang plateau. After disengagement in the areas of Pangang Tso-Kailash range, Galwan Valley and Gogra-Hot Springs, it is learnt that Indian troops can no longer access 26 of their 65 PPs from the Karakoram Pass in the north down to Chumar in the south in eastern Ladakh. This despite the fact that no-patrol buffer zones agreed during initial disengagement process in these areas vary from 3 to 10 kms largely on Indian territory. This situation should not continue as it will not help to reduce the ongoing tension along the LAC, which means normalization of relations between the two countries will only be a mirage. The SCO meeting on 27 and 28 April in New Delhi attended by defence ministers of China and Russia giving opportunity for Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to hold free and frank bilateral talks with each amidst continuing three-year old military confrontation in eastern Ladakh on one hand and the growing concerns in India over the new bonhomie between Russia and China on the other assumes significance.
Tail Piece : The Indo-China border issue remains complex. It requires both sides to engage at all levels-military, diplomatic and
political and also through different channels, to find a reasonable solution fair to both sides. No improvement is likely in bilateral relations till China restores the status quo it disturbed on the LAC in April-May 2020. There is a pressing need to bridge the trust deficit and reduce heightened tensions along the entire 3,488 Kms of LAC from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh. This is possible only through understanding in the meetings betweenpolitical leadership of the two counties at the level of both Defence and External Affairs ministers in open and candid manner with guidance from top leadership on the basis of mutually acceptable resolution at military level for disengagement of troops at the remaining two friction points.
[Author A Wing Commander in the IAF, was a Category ‘A’ Fighter Controller who actively participated in 1965 and 1971 wars. He was awarded Vishisht Seva Medal by the President of India. He is an alumnus of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington Currently President of Air Force Association (AP &Telangana) and also President of Air Force Officers’ Co-op Housing Society Ltd, Vayupuri. Views expressed are personal.]