The replacement rate of fertility is the number of children a woman has to have to keep the population stabilised and fewer than that would mean a gradual reduction in population, which is happening in China with a 1.2 fertility rate as India has overtaken it to become the most populous country.
However, not everything seems to be hunky dory for the country with respect to growth of population. The growth of population shows growing demographic imbalance as it shrinks in the southern states of India.
The fertility rate ranges from 1.4 for Tamil Nadu and West Bengal to 3 for Bihar among the large states, with Kerala at 1.5, according to the Indian Census Organisation’s Sample Registration System report released last year.
It appears the ‘enlightenment’ education is giving and the ‘comforts’ employment is offering is compelling people to have less children in southern states, while less educated and unemployed people of other states are having more children adding to the population of the country.
This trend is leading to migration of labour from the northern and eastern states to the southern states, which according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) is giving scope for ‘demographic dividend’.
The demographic dividend of a relatively younger and bigger working-age population is projected to continue increasing both in number and as a proportion of the total population through mid-century.
According to the UN’s latest projections, “India’s population is expected to reach its peak size around 2064 and then to decline gradually” after having passed 1.67 billion in 2050.
Under India’s federal structure, state governments were able to set their own policy priorities, resulting in varied impacts across different parts of the country. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where state governments emphasised socio-economic development and women’s empowerment, fertility declined earlier and at a more rapid pace, falling below the replacement level two decades before the country as a whole, the UNDESA said.
It is time the governments pay attention and ensure balanced growth of population in all the states, lest the demographic imbalance could play havoc with the lives of the people in the years to come.